Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?
Bonds & TreasuriesGéopolitiqueOne-OffLatin America3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 19:49 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026:
- PDVSA is removed from the OFAC SDN list, or a general license allows broad US business with PDVSA
- Executive order formally terminates or suspends E.O. 13850 (oil sector) or E.O. 13884 (government property blocking)
- US Treasury/State announces Venezuela oil sanctions are "lifted," "ended," or "terminated" (not just "modified" or "waived")
- If sanctions are lifted, resolves N/A. If sanctions are NOT lifted, resolves to this market:
Marchés ouverts
Bonds & TreasuriesPOLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- 4.0%+0.3pt100%
- 3.9%-0.7pt9%
- 3.8%+3.0pt8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 211,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- 4.82%-27.0pt50%
- 4.85%-25.5pt41%
- 4.94%-10.0pt30%
+6 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.4%-1.5pt100%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
- Below 4.76%+5.5pt79%
- Below 4.73%+15.5pt76%
- Below 4.70%+9.0pt59%
+6 résultats de plus
KALSHI10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 4.66% or above99%
- 4.68% or above99%
- 4.7% or above99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 k €
KALSHI30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 5.19% or above99%
- 5.17% or above99%
- 5.11% or above99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2 k €
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will NU sell $250M in bonds for the Big Red Rebuild?
- 5Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 7Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
- 30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
- US defaults on debt by 2027?
- 2Y US Treasury yield on Sep 11, 2026?
- How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026: