Will Venezuelans be better off at end of 2026, conditional on sanctions NOT being lifted?
Obligations et bons du TrésorGéopolitiqueOne-OffAmérique latine1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 19:49 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Nicolas Maduro continue to accept migrant deportations of Venezuelans illegally residing in the US before 2028?
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Manifold MarketsWill the US Treasury issue a new General License authorizing broad oil operations in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Sanctions are considered "lifted" if ANY of the following occur before Dec 31, 2026:
- PDVSA is removed from the OFAC SDN list, or a general license allows broad US business with PDVSA
- Executive order formally terminates or suspends E.O. 13850 (oil sector) or E.O. 13884 (government property blocking)
- US Treasury/State announces Venezuela oil sanctions are "lifted," "ended," or "terminated" (not just "modified" or "waived")
- If sanctions are lifted, resolves N/A. If sanctions are NOT lifted, resolves to this market:
