Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.9%
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35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète20 août 25, 09:48 UTC20 août 27, 09:47 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown?
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KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if a reliable source reports that Trump wears a crown during his period as head of state (this may extend beyond his current term as president if he retains power).
- Resolves NO if Trump leaves office without wearing a crown.
- Update 2025-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Expansive definition: Includes crown-like headpieces (e.g., coronets).
- Excludes: Cheap costume or gimmick crowns.
- Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A proper replica of a real historical crown would count for resolution