Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.4%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 26, 15:35 UTC20 janv. 29, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
Manifold MarketsTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
PolymarketWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he completes his term (or leaves due to death or incapacitation).
- Resolves N/A if the office of the presedency ceases to exist.
- Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump is removed via the 25th Amendment and it lasts for the remainder of his term, the market resolves YES.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via: