Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.4%
Prévisionnistes
102
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 26, 11:47 UTC20 janv. 29, 11:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed from office before January 20th of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
- Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
- Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO.
- The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
