Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97.1%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète3 juin 26, 12:12 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Manifold MarketsKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketKim Jong-Un still Supreme Leader of North Korea through the end of 2026?
FutuurWhat year will Kim Jong-Un cease being Supreme Leader of North Korea?
Manifold MarketsKim Jong Un or descendant isn't supreme leader in North Korea anytime through 2028
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran meet in person anywhere at any point in 2026 (on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Qualifying Meeting: The meeting must be in-person and face-to-face.
- Bilateral virtual meetings, phone calls, or video conferences do not qualify.
- Verification: The meeting must be confirmed by official state channels (such as the White House or the Iranian government) or reported by credible, mainstream international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg).
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran? · Before Jan 1, 2027 3%
