Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 99%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète17 mai 26, 07:33 UTC31 déc. 26, 06:32 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Thomas Massie win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Ed Gallrein underperform Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Ed Gallrein win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Thomas Massie ever become the President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Thomas Massie win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastEx2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRègles
Resolves yes if Thomas Massie officially endorses Ed Gallrein.
- This must be supportive of his candidacy.
- Congratulating a primary victory doesn’t count.
- Resolves no if no endorsement by Novembers election day.
- Or resolves early to no if Massie wins the primary.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves yes if Thomas Massie officially endorses Ed Gallrein.