Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 97.8%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 58 minutes
En retard20 mai 26, 04:51 UTC20 nov. 26, 04:50 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein?
Manifold MarketsWill Ed Gallrein win the Kentucky 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
In 2024, Donald Trump recieved 66.91% in Kentuckys 4th Congressional district.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky#District_4
- Resolves yes if Ed gallrein recieves 66.90% or less.
- Resolves no if Ed Gallrein recieves 66.91% or more.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 98% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? doit être résolu le 20 novembre 2026.
- Comment Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In 2024, Donald Trump recieved 66.91% in Kentuckys 4th Congressional district.