Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.8%
Prévisionnistes
109
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète29 août 23, 22:49 UTC1 janv. 75, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a plumbing company that has fully automated services by 2080?
Manifold MarketsWhen will housekeeping be fully automated with 99% success rate per house service?
Manifold MarketsFully automated plate racking before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Up to now, increasing automation has resulted in more jobs being created than lost or overtaken by the machines.
- However, there are an increasing number of reports which state that, with the advent of AI, this time will be different.
- Recently, Goldman Sachs has estimate that 25% of all jobs could be entirely automated by currently existing AI technologies.
- And there was a report by McKinsey, published in 2017, which claimed that by the year 2055, nearly 50% of all jobs could be fully automated.
- Recent advances in generative AI have only added to the discourse with the supposition that it is the white collar work that will be automated away first...
- Will resolve "Yes" if at any time before January 1st 2075, all jobs that could be held by a human are instead given over to an AI, and everyone everywhere finds themselves both unemployed, and unemployable.
