Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.3%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard12 févr. 26, 18:31 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a startup with zero human employees in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill half of the S&P 500 enforce wide adoption of AI tools by employees by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsFederal employees at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/Putcallparity/will-there-be-a-unicorn-founded-and
- Note that human board members, founders (if not employed or involved in operations), or investors are still allowed for a 'YES' resolution here.
- But no humans can be employed by the company.
- The focus in resolving this will not be on fine legal distinctions between 'contractor' and 'employee', but on the involvement of human labor in the day to day operations of the company.
- If the full time involvement of human contractors is required, or if an unpaid human founder is involved in operations on a daily basis in order to increase the value of their equity, this would resolve as 'NO'.