Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.7%
Prévisionnistes
56
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète2 juin 24, 19:17 UTC5 mars 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be at least one major U.S. blackout caused by a cyberattack by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Florida in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to Wikipedia has been widely recognized as a major competitor.
- This platform must meet the following criteria:
- Decentralized Nature: The platform must operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain or other distributed ledger technology, without a single point of control.
- User Base: It must have a substantial user base, comparable to or exceeding 15% of Wikipedia's active monthly users.
- Content Quality and Quantity: The platform should host a significant amount of content, with both the quality and breadth of articles comparable to Wikipedia.
- Recognition: It must be recognized by reputable sources in the technology or information sectors as a major competitor to Wikipedia.
Marchés ouverts
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 566,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 548,4 k €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? doit être résolu le 5 mars 2031.
- Comment Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to Wikipedia has been widely recognized as a major competitor.