Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.2%
Prévisionnistes
65
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète9 nov. 24, 05:49 UTC22 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases.
- I am open to arguments and will aim to resolve according to the the spirit of the question.
- That being said, to provide some insight into what I will be looking for, I imagine that a "coup attempt" is a serious, deliberate effort to forcibly seize the federal executive branch of the United States.
- The effort may be successful or unsuccessful.
- This question resolves YES if a coup attempt is made against Donald Trump during his second term, and NO on 21 Jan 2029 if no coup attempt has occurred.
- This question may also resolve NO early if Donald Trump ceases to be US President and therefore it is not possible to coup him (e.g. death, resignation).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? doit être résolu le 22 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases.