Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.2%
Non 89.2%Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète9 nov. 24, 05:49 UTC22 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked against Donald Trump by his VP and cabinet during his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coup attempt that kills more than 100 people in any rich democracy before April 2123?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsChina coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketUkraine coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases.
- I am open to arguments and will aim to resolve according to the the spirit of the question.
- That being said, to provide some insight into what I will be looking for, I imagine that a "coup attempt" is a serious, deliberate effort to forcibly seize the federal executive branch of the United States.
- The effort may be successful or unsuccessful.
- This question resolves YES if a coup attempt is made against Donald Trump during his second term, and NO on 21 Jan 2029 if no coup attempt has occurred.
- This question may also resolve NO early if Donald Trump ceases to be US President and therefore it is not possible to coup him (e.g. death, resignation).
