Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 66.9%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 27 minutes
10 avr. 25, 18:10 UTC1 janv. 35, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsRepublicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if a civil war breaks out in Turkey at any point between now and December 31, 2034.
- For the purposes of this market, a "civil war" is defined as an armed conflict within Turkey that:
- Results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths within a 12-month period
- Involves organized armed groups fighting against the Turkish government or against each other
- Is recognized as a civil war by major international organizations (such as the UN) or by multiple credible conflict monitoring organizations
