Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
One-OffPolitique américaineRégulation3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.1%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
14 avr. 25, 06:21 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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KalshiRègles
Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook:
- https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook
- The US nonimmigrant inadmissibility rate for the purposes of this market is defined as:
- rate = inadmissible / (admissions + inadmissible)
- If this rate is at least three times as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.