Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
YearlyMacro et économieIA2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 55%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète27 déc. 23, 16:20 UTC31 déc. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
The Gini index is one of the most basic inequalities agregation measure.
- The resolution will be based on OECD data, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm The US in the recent years have been hovering between 0.39 and 0.40 with a small decrease in 2020/2021 and got back to 0.395 in 2022.
- World bank data and OECD data do not agree on the value in the recent years, the world bank (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=US) puts the all time high at 0.415 in 2014 while OECD puts it at 0.396 in 2013, which may be coming from different methodologies.
- Arbitrary, the OECD data has been chosen for resolution.
- In any case, an index of 0.43 is unseen in the modern history of the US (at least since 1960)
