Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleMore Authoritarian 66.3%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète11 avr. 26, 16:56 UTC31 mars 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving based on whether the United States score in 2026 goes up (the named outcome), down (the named outcome), or stays flat (the named outcome) relative to its score in the previous year.
- If the official report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari (this question)
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
- 🇨🇳 @/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria-tQRh2Cq2Rq
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote More Authoritarian à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 mars 2027.
- Comment Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving based on whether the United States score in 2026 goes up (the named outcome), down (the named outcome), or stays flat (the named outcome) relative to its score in the previous year.