Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
Politique américaineGéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-Orient2a
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Données au 25 oct. 2026, 23:51 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
At war includes:
- US troops on the ground in Iran
- Ongoing strikes by either side
- Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
- Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
- This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
