Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office?
US PoliticsGéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.7%
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28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète7 mars 26, 15:58 UTC31 juil. 29, 10:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
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PolymarketRègles
At war includes:
- US troops on the ground in Iran
- Ongoing strikes by either side
- Strait of Hormuz closed to most traffic, and US Naval forces in the area
- Routine US overflights or Iran, such as an enforced no-fly zone
- This is based on the status at the time Trump leaves office, not before; if the war pauses and then resumes and is ongoing when Trump leaves, this will resolve Yes, pause notwithstanding.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? doit être résolu le 31 juillet 2029.
- Comment Will the US be at war with Iran when Trump leaves office? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : At war includes: