Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionMiddle EastGéopolitique2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.5%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 17:26 UTC20 janv. 29, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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FutuurRègles
This market will only resolve no once:
- the media consensus is that the Iran war is over (not just a ceasefire), OR
- a temporary ceasefire has gone on for 365 contiguous days.
- Otherwise, it will resolve yes when the next Democratic party nominee for President is inaugurated and there is not an active ceasefire.
- If a ceasefire is ongoing at the time of inauguration, this market will not resolve until either the ceasefire ends or it reaches 365 contiguous days (inclusive of days prior to inauguration).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will only resolve no once: