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Données au 8 sept. 2026, 22:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
U.S. Senator 0%En tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
26 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueÉcart
9.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
20 août 26, 14:00 UTC1 févr. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
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0%
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the United States still be at war with Iran when the next Democratic president is inaugurated?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRègles
If the named outcome is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The New York TimesAssociated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
- This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.
- Each market resolves independently and more than one can resolve YES.
- If the person has held none of the offices listed, every market resolves NO.
- "Previously held" means the person was sworn in and served in the office at any time before January 20, 2029.
- Any length of service counts, and it does not matter whether the person reached the office through election, appointment or succession.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029? ?
- Kalshi cote U.S. Senator à 0% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029? doit être résolu le 1 février 2029.
- Comment Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome is an office previously held by the first person inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.