Will the UN Security Council hold a formal meeting on outer space before November 15, 2026?
One-OffEspaceÉlectionRussie / UkraineChinePolitique19jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71.8%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète15 sept. 26, 22:42 UTC15 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
On 2026-09-15 the United States publicly confirmed for the first time that it has deployed an offensive weapon in Earth orbit (BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cmn07yjqg5rwo ; CBS: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-confirms-weapons-in-space-china-russia-respond/ ).
- China warned against turning outer space into a "battlefield"; Russia responded as well.
- This market asks whether that shock actually reaches the UN Security Council as a formal item, rather than being handled in the UN General Assembly First Committee (which meets every October and always covers outer space) or in statements alone.
- RESOLUTION Resolves YES if, between market creation and 2026-11-15 23:59 UTC, the UN Security Council convenes a FORMAL meeting whose official agenda item, meeting title, or announced sub-item explicitly refers to outer space or space security. - Counts: open debates, briefings, signature events, and formal votes recorded in the Security Council meetings record. - Does NOT count: closed consultations, Arria-formula meetings, press statements, presidential statements, written products, or any meeting where space is merely discussed under an unrelated agenda title.
- RESOLUTION SOURCE (named oracle): the Security Council official meetings record at https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ together with UN Meetings Coverage press releases at https://press.un.org/en .
- If the two disagree, UN Meetings Coverage governs.
