Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 16:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle2044 6.8%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète9 avr. 26, 18:05 UTC31 déc. 48, 18:53 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
PolymarketWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiWill Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill Tucker Carlson announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItWill Elon Musk run for president before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" for a specific election year option if Pope Leo XIV formally registers as a candidate for the office of President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- If Leo XIV (born Robert Prevost in Chicago, 1955) resigned, returned to the US, and ran (e.g., in 2028), he meets Article II requirements (natural-born citizen, 35+, 14-year residency).
- No precedent exists, but it’s legally possible post-resignation.