KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 54%
Qualité du marché
55 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
139,2 €
Liquidité
4,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
41.0% / 46.0%
Écart
5.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 27 minutes
12 mars 26, 14:00 UTC1 janv. 28, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will either Rubio or Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Marco Rubio run for President?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketWhich of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketWill Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
KalshiWill Jon Ossoff announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItRègles
If JD Vance and Marco Rubio both announce presidential campaigns to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: JD Vance (2028RUNPARTY), Marco Rubio (2028RUNPARTY).
- All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2028.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.1pt60.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt38.6%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 133,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 947,3 k €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59.8%
- D-House, R-Senate29.4%
- Republicans sweep+0.4pt9.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 194,6 M €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-6.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Volume total
- 28,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 523,8 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.2pt90.1%
- Republican Party+0.4pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 30,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 493,5 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Rubio and Vance run for President? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 54% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Rubio and Vance run for President? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Rubio and Vance run for President? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Rubio and Vance run for President? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If JD Vance and Marco Rubio both announce presidential campaigns to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où Will Rubio and Vance run for President? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur PredictIt.