Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffPolitique1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.1%
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2
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binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète13 avr. 26, 19:14 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreversible power shift is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
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- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.