Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?
One-OffTechMacro et économie2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60%
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Mis à jour il y a 23 heures
Obsolète3 mars 23, 01:31 UTC1 juin 29, 07:00 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
Recently, many have claimed that AI coding tools will soon make software developers obsolete.
- According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of people in the United States employed as software developers in 2021 was 1,364,180.
- The figure for 2022 has yet to be published, but is scheduled to be published later this year.
- This question resolves to YES if the number of people employed as "software developers" in the United States declines by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028 as determined by data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- In case the BLS declines to publish the relevant figures before 2030, this question resolves to N/A. If the BLS changes the definition of "software developer" substantially, or their method of counting those employed changes substantially, this question will also resolve to N/A, and I will judge whether the change was "substantial" at my sole discretion.
