Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 66%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète1 avr. 26, 12:52 UTC1 avr. 29, 12:37 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Peter Thiel become the next Pope? (Pope Thiel)
Manifold MarketsWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
PredictItDonald Trump becomes a Pope-like figure?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Italy crashed out of qualifying for the World Cup.
- Does narrative causality dictate the next pope is going to be Italian?
- Resolution Criteria.
- I will be liberal in interpreting what counts as Italian.
- At least one italian grandparent counts, but not recursively.
- Having been an immigrant to Italy for over three years at time of enthronement counts.
Marchés ouverts
SportsKALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton+49.0pt70.3%
- Carlos Alcaraz-49.0pt29.7%
- Volume total
- 22,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 21,2 M €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Finals match
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt59.7%
- Carlos Alcaraz40.3%
- Volume total
- 459,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,6 M €
POLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
- Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5+37.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Set 2 Winner+67.5pt100%
- Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5+39.5pt100%
+23 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Bayern Munich13.3%
+33 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,6 M €
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R13.9%
- Buffalo6.6%
- Seattle6.6%
+29 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 74 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Alexander Zverev+11.0pt38%
- Ben Shelton+20.0pt28%
- Carlos Alcaraz-37.0pt19%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 25,8 M €
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MVP Winner?
- New England vs Seattle
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Exact Match Score
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Set 3 Winner
- Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
- Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz: Total Games
- 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)
- Heisman Trophy Winner
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- College Football National Championship Winner
- Counter-Strike: 5star vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next pope be Italian? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 66% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next pope be Italian? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next pope be Italian? doit être résolu le 1 avril 2029.
- Comment Will the next pope be Italian? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Italy crashed out of qualifying for the World Cup.