Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.1%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard10 juin 24, 06:47 UTC1 juin 29, 18:29 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWho will lead India after Narendra Modi leaves power?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?
Manifold MarketsNarendra Modi out as Indian Prime Minister before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?
Manifold MarketsNepalese monarchy restored before 2040?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The results of the 2024 Indian General Elections were declared on 5 June 2024.
- On 7 June 2024, Narendra Modi staked claim to form the government (i.e., executive) of India.
- Controlling the executive requires the support of a parliamentary majority.
- Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, on its own does not have enough seats to cross majority mark, and so requires the support of its alliance, the National Democratic Alliance, to control government.
- Resolves YES if Narendra Modi does not hold the post of Prime Minister at any point before the standard end of term.
- Resolves NO if Modi retains this post throughout the term.
