Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.4%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète10 sept. 25, 04:02 UTC31 déc. 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will lead India after Narendra Modi leaves power?
Manifold MarketsWill Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win Uttar Pradesh State Elections held in Jan - March 2027?
Manifold MarketsModi out by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketYoon out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59 Nepal Time (UTC+5:45) on December 31, 2039, Nepal has officially restored a monarchy with a king or queen as head of state, evidenced by either:
- A constitutional amendment or formal proclamation published in the Nepal Gazette (Nepal Rajpatra), or
- The official text of the Constitution updated to designate a monarch as head of state (e.g., on WIPO Lex or an official government publication).
- Non‑binding proposals, party statements, protests, or unofficial “oaths” do not count.
- If sources conflict, prioritize the Nepal Gazette or an updated official constitution text.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Nepalese monarchy restored before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Nepalese monarchy restored before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Nepalese monarchy restored before 2040? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2039.
- Comment Nepalese monarchy restored before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria