Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 79.9%
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15
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète29 mars 24, 12:48 UTC1 janv. 50, 12:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Android still use the Linux kernel by 2035?
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Manifold MarketsWhich release of Linux kernel will have the first Rust-only driver for consumer-grade hardware ?
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Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRègles
Resolves yes if on 1 January 2050 the Linux kernel project continues to exist, with development activity ongoing.
- A fork of the main kernel project doesn't count unless there is some exceptional circumstance where there is truly overwhelming community consensus that the fork is the "real" project (think a situation where a supermajority of prominent kernel developers and most of the key distros switch over instantly due to a legal dispute or a few individuals being disruptive, not a situation where someone forks Linux because it's dead and they want it as a retrocomputing project).