Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 82.9%
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Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 août 25, 21:10 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%
- Top 7 LLMs Ranked in 2025: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude & More.
- To establish the 2025 baseline:
- On Dec 31, 2025, identify the LLM with the highest average score across the "Core Benchmark Suite" (defined below)
- This becomes the baseline for calculating 10% improvement
- CORE BENCHMARK SUITE (to avoid cherry-picking):
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%