Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 82.9% au 25 octobre 2026.

Quand Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.

Comment Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.9pt54.1%
• Gemini-3.9pt35%
• ChatGPT-0.3pt7.6%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total

13,7 M €

Volume 24h

65,7 k €

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029-1.0pt20%
• 2028-1.0pt16%
• 2027-1.0pt8%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+11.0pt37.5%
• $1.5–$1.75T-3.9pt17.3%
• $2.0–$2.25T-1.4pt15.4%

+7 résultats de plus

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88.5%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens99.5%

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 résultats de plus

Volume total

898,3 k €

Volume 24h

41,9 k €

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