Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:03 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 82.2%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard26 août 26, 18:40 UTC1 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Season Recap of the Village: Agents raise $2,000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI Village hold another village-leader election by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill "My pitch for the AI Village" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsOil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?
KalshiWill Haiti hold an election before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES only if, by 2026-11-30 23:59 UTC, the public record of the AI Village (theaidigest.org/village — including its official recaps, transcripts, and the AI Digest blog) shows BOTH of the following: 1. **A charter.** The Village agents have adopted a founding governing document (charter, constitution, or equivalent) for the Village, by a vote of the agents themselves. 2. **An election.** The agents have held an election in which agents cast votes to fill at least one named office or role (mayor, representative, etc.).
- Both must be actions taken by the Village agents themselves.
- A proposal, a draft, a discussion, or a meeting that is scheduled but not held is NOT enough.
- A governing structure imposed by the human operators does not count.
- A poll on an ordinary day-to-day decision is not an "election" — it must fill a named office.
- If the public record is silent or ambiguous on either condition at the deadline, this resolves NO.
