Will the 48th President of the United States be a member of the Democratic party?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection10aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 57.8%
Prévisionnistes
19
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète8 août 23, 12:47 UTC3 mars 37, 13:29 UTC
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KalshiRègles
(This question is using the numbering scheme that counts Grover Cleveland twice, e.g. Trump would be 45, Biden would be 46, etc.)
- The president must be a member of the party at the time of inauguration.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a president serves a non-consecutive second term, they will be assigned a new number.
- For example, Donald Trump would be counted as both the 45th and 47th President, following the same logic as Grover Cleveland.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A president who assumes office mid-term (e.g., a Vice President taking over due to death, resignation, or impeachment) will be assigned a new number in the presidential sequence.
- The creator cites Calvin Coolidge and Gerald Ford as examples of this standardized numbering rule.
