Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
One-OffSociety & Culture3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète21 nov. 22, 15:35 UTC1 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiRègles
This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott.
- It must be something where a significant number of Scott's friends, readers, and/or professional aquaintances are angry at him or want to stop associating with him.
- It must also be public enough that I hear about it through public channels.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This doesn't count a scandal like the NYT article, since most people within Scott's communities were in favor of Scott.