Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 59%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète16 mai 24, 00:47 UTC1 janv. 32, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsConditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
KalshiSam Altman still CEO of OpenAI through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Strong AGI as defined by the official Manifold market: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- If he steps down as CEO but remains on the board or another role, this question will remain open.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2032.
- Comment Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Strong AGI as defined by the official Manifold market: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708