Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.5%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète13 avr. 26, 14:28 UTC5 mars 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) receives at least 5% of the party list votes ("Zweitstimme") in the next German federal election.
- It will resolve to "No" otherwise.
- The official result will be determined by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin).
- Verification can be made via the official website at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/.
- If the party meets the threshold through winning three constituencies despite failing the 5% party list vote, the market will still resolve to "Yes."
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? doit être résolu le 5 mars 2029.
- Comment Will Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance get at least 5% in the next Bundestag election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria