Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 août 25, 18:38 UTC1 janv. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
Manifold MarketsRSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032
Manifold MarketsWill AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
Manifold MarketsWill RSA-2048 encryption be broken before Bitcoin reaches $150K USD?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Cybersecurity analysts call this Q-Day—the day someone builds a Quantum Computer that can crack the most widely used forms of encryption.
- https://archive.is/00jZB
- It may have already happened and they kept it a secret.
- So this market will not close until 1/1/28.
- Although Q-day must happen a year before that 1/1/27 to resolve as Yes.
- I think by then everyone will know if the answer is Yes.
