Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
307
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète11 juin 24, 16:41 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Netflix offer a basic subscription tier whose catalogue consists predominantly of AI-generated content by EOY 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill vice.com end up deleting > 50% of their pre-existing online content by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
KalshiWill OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025?
- Closes at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it.
- Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place.
- Vide this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder.