Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 72.8%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 41 minutes
12 sept. 26, 20:12 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
Manifold MarketsTwo+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes if either company takes actions that clearly and intentionally slow down frontier model capability improvement.
- Both Dario and Sam Altman have stated they think this is a good idea.
