Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 94.9%
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète21 avr. 26, 14:05 UTC20 oct. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Illumina (ILMN) go bankrupt before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Twitter (X) go bankrupt before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many companies will go bankrupt this year?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Seb Mallaby says "there's a 50% chance that OpenAI goes bankrupt in the next 18mos":
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? doit être résolu le 20 octobre 2027.
- Comment Will OpenAI go bankrupt before October 21, 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Seb Mallaby says "there's a 50% chance that OpenAI goes bankrupt in the next 18mos":