Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.8%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète16 avr. 26, 12:05 UTC31 déc. 27, 12:48 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
By legal consequences I mean: 1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped 2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)
- Unrelated legal troubles (DUIs, or him being caught doing drugs, or being sued for SAing someone in a frat party) will not be considered.
- I will not bet on this market.
Marchés ouverts
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Volume total
- 347,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,4 k €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 6,8 k €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Volume total
- 498,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,1 k €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 68% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : By legal consequences I mean: 1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped 2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)