Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 94.4%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète29 mai 26, 06:53 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Manifold MarketsHow many launches will SpaceX have in November?
Manifold MarketsRègles
On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded in a massive fireball during a pre-launch static fire test at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) ahead of its planned fourth mission (NG-4).
- Given the extensive infrastructure damage, planned switch to 9x4, and possible destruction of the only other completed 7-engine booster, some including Eric Berger have speculated the company may skip directly to 9x4.
- The market will resolve as no if Blue officially confirms they will move directly to 9x4, or if the next New Glenn flight is in the 9x4 configuration and there is no credible information that any future 7x2 flights are planned.
- Yes resolution requires a 7x2 rocket to intentionally lift off of the pad; success otherwise isn’t necessary.