Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.3%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète13 juin 26, 04:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any GOP member of the US Congress lose their 2026 election to a candidate endorsed by Elon Musk?
Manifold MarketsWill Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson have ridden a batmobile, laid an egg, and made Joker run away by 2030?
Manifold MarketsFrench Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if both of the following conditions are met on or before December 31, 2027:
- Losing the Premiership: Following the next Israeli legislative election (scheduled by October 27, 2026, or held earlier as a snap election), Benjamin Netanyahu is not the Prime Minister of Israel in the government successfully sworn in immediately after that election.
- Relocating to Miami: Within six months of the newly formed government being sworn in (and no later than December 31, 2027), Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Israel and takes up residence in the Miami metropolitan area (or South Florida) for a continuous period of at least 30 days.
- This must be confirmed by reputable national or international news organizations (e.g., The Times of Israel, Reuters, Associated Press, or The New York Times).
- This market will resolve to NO if: