Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98.9%
Prévisionnistes
45
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète27 janv. 24, 04:19 UTC2 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first successful soft landing of a probe on Mercury happen?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES:
- There is a successful manned NASA landing on the moon by January 1st 2027.
- There is no attempted landing, or an attempted landing leads to the death of an astronaut.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will NASA have a manned landing on the moon by 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES: