Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.2%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète3 juil. 26, 19:16 UTC24 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves based on
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on December 24, 2026 (Christmas Eve), Mitch McConnell's Class II U.S. Senate seat representing Kentucky is officially vacant.
- It will resolve to NO if the seat is occupied by Mitch McConnell or any successor who has been officially sworn in to fill the seat by that date.
- A vacancy exists if Mitch McConnell has died, resigned, been expelled, or otherwise officially vacated his office before December 24, 2026, and no successor has been officially sworn in and seated in the U.S. Senate to replace him by 11:59 PM EST on December 24, 2026.
- If Mitch McConnell remains the sitting Senator for Kentucky as of December 24, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026? doit être résolu le 24 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves based on