Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 82%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète25 nov. 22, 09:28 UTC1 janv. 31, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?
Manifold MarketsWill Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?
Manifold MarketsSpotify total monthly active users in 2026
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026
KalshiRègles
This market resolves to YES if:
- Officially reported (or best available estimate) of Monthly Active Users for any part of 2030 are higher for Mastodon than Twitter.
- Twitter doesn't exist in 2030 but Mastodon does and has at least 2 million active monthly users* at any point in 2030.
- And NO in every other case.
- *The number reported by them in November 2022.
- If they don't reach at least that in 2030 and Twitter doesn't exist then effectively they have both failed as far as this question is concerned.
