Will Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory be overturned before 2029?
PolitiqueOne-OffÉlectionAmérique latine2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète26 oct. 26, 14:52 UTC31 déc. 28, 11:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2029 (23:59:59 UTC), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is officially overturned, annulled, or invalidated by an authorized Brazilian constitutional authority—specifically Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral - TSE), the Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal - STF), or a formal decree of nullification by the National Congress—such that Lula is legally stripped of the presidency or prevented from taking office due to the cancellation or reversal of the 2026 election outcome.
- This market resolves to NO if:
- Legal challenges requesting the annulment or overturning of the 2026 presidential election are rejected, dismissed, or fail to invalidate the result before January 1, 2029.
- Lula remains in office under the 2026 election mandate through December 31, 2028.
- Lula vacates office for ordinary, non-electoral reasons (e.g., standard impeachment for crimes committed in office, resignation, medical incapacitation, or death) without an official legal ruling invalidating or overturning the 2026 election result itself.
