Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 92.7%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
2 sept. 24, 20:54 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?
KalshiWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketTrump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
PolymarketRègles
As indicated by the Organization of American States.
- Resolves YES if the OAS finds the election is generally free and fair.
- Resolves NO if the OAS finds the election to be not free or not fair.
- If OAS does not comment, I will use my judgement to resolve the market based on another observer, likely considering this list of high-quality election monitoring organizations.
- I'll wait up to two years from the date of the election to get time for comment from OAS.
- If the OAS issues a preliminary report with a clear finding, that will be sufficient to resolve the question.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As indicated by the Organization of American States.