Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 94.3%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 24, 20:54 UTC2 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsIsrael holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?
KalshiFall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
PolymarketRègles
As indicated by the Organization of American States.
- Resolves YES if the OAS finds the election is generally free and fair.
- Resolves NO if the OAS finds the election to be not free or not fair.
- If OAS does not comment, I will use my judgement to resolve the market based on another observer, likely considering this list of high-quality election monitoring organizations.
- I'll wait up to two years from the date of the election to get time for comment from OAS.
- If the OAS issues a preliminary report with a clear finding, that will be sufficient to resolve the question.