Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67.1%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète17 mars 25, 19:17 UTC2 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGuatemalan Congressional election winner?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRègles
Obviously subjective.
- Any significant restrictions on 2026 voting (e.g., all voting must be in person) will result in this being resolved NO.
- Update 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if:
- Representatives-elect are not sworn in to Congress
- An entire state delegation is considered invalid
- Any situation similar to the Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva case occurs
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair sera-t-il résolu ?
- The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair doit être résolu le 2 décembre 2026.
- Comment The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Obviously subjective.