Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 58.3%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète22 juin 26, 04:25 UTC1 févr. 31, 05:12 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)
Manifold MarketsWhen will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
Manifold MarketsSanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
PolymarketWho will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
KalshiAndy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?
KalshiRègles
Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media.
- From being instilled by the crown to resignation to the crown.
- Market closure date will be adjusted to ensure stays open in normal circumstances to successor submitting resignation to crown.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 58% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? doit être résolu le 1 février 2031.
- Comment Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media.