Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98.9%
Prévisionnistes
65
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète15 févr. 24, 09:06 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029?
Manifold MarketsMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by which date?
PolymarketWho will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
KalshiRègles
Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:
- Keir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)
- Keir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).
- Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.
- If he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.