Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 97%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète17 mars 26, 17:31 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?
PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029.
- This market resolves YES if Keir Starmer is reelected as Prime Minister following the 2029 general election.
- The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer, but with the smallest share of the electoral vote of any majority government since record-keeping of the popular vote began in 1830.
- The Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak lost 251 seats and suffered their worst ever defeat, ending their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, came third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time.
Marchés ouverts
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria