Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle> 1 month 99%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète13 mai 26, 23:42 UTC13 sept. 30, 23:42 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK's Prime Minister by which date?
FutuurHow many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the duration of the next UK Prime Minister's continuous tenure after Keir Starmer, starting from the date they are officially sworn into office.
- The duration will be measured by the time elapsed between their appointment and the date they officially leave office (the day their successor is appointed or they formally resign/are removed).
- Resolution will be determined using the official records from gov.uk and major credible news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.
- Each answer option corresponds to the PM remaining in office for a duration strictly greater than the specified time.
- If multiple options are met (e.g., if a PM stays for 2 years, the "> 1 month," "> 6 months," and "> 1 year" options will all resolve YES), this market allows for independent resolution of each answer.
