Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle> 1 month 99%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète13 mai 26, 23:42 UTC13 sept. 30, 23:42 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsAndy Burnham out as UK's Prime Minister by which date?
FutuurHow many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the duration of the next UK Prime Minister's continuous tenure after Keir Starmer, starting from the date they are officially sworn into office.
- The duration will be measured by the time elapsed between their appointment and the date they officially leave office (the day their successor is appointed or they formally resign/are removed).
- Resolution will be determined using the official records from gov.uk and major credible news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.
- Each answer option corresponds to the PM remaining in office for a duration strictly greater than the specified time.
- If multiple options are met (e.g., if a PM stays for 2 years, the "> 1 month," "> 6 months," and "> 1 year" options will all resolve YES), this market allows for independent resolution of each answer.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) ?
- Manifold Markets cote > 1 month à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) doit être résolu le 13 septembre 2030.
- Comment Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria